Democrats have held majority control of New Jersey’s Legislature for 23 years. The state has had a Democratic governor since 2018. And Democrats enjoy an 800,000-voter registration advantage.
So when Republicans talk about November’s race for governor, they acknowledge that their sense of growing optimism can feel a bit unfamiliar.
“It’s viewed, nationally, as not impossible,” said William Palatucci, one of New Jersey’s two representatives on the Republican National Committee. “And there’s a lot of interest for that reason.”
On Tuesday, Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, won the Republican nomination by a resounding 3-to-1 margin, further ratcheting up confidence among party leaders intent on making the most of an atmosphere that they believe offers the best shot for a win in years. He will run against Representative Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat who beat five opponents, decisively, after a bruising and expensive contest.
“It’s the best opportunity, maybe, in a generation,” said Mike DuHaime, a political strategist who helped to run campaigns for former Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican who left office in 2018.
Several factors are expected to boost Mr. Ciattarelli’s odds.
After competing for governor in 2017 and 2021, he has a sturdy level of name recognition and a deep understanding of the policy issues that are likeliest to motivate voters. He also has the world’s biggest cheerleader — President Trump — in his corner and history on his side. Not since 1961 has either party managed to hold on to the governor’s office for three consecutive terms, and Gov. Philip D. Murphy, a Democrat, has had the job for two.
“New Jersey is not a blue state,” said State Senator Mike Testa, a Republican who was a chairman of Mr. Trump’s 2020 campaign in New Jersey. “We’re a purple state.”
After eight years of Democratic leadership, Republicans said they anticipate that the campaign will be framed fundamentally as a right-direction, wrong-direction dichotomy.
“Democrat Mikie Sherrill must defend her failed record in Washington,” said Gov. Brian Kemp, Republican of Georgia, who leads the Republican Governors Association.
Democrats are candid about the challenge ahead. But they like their odds, too.
Ten years ago, Mr. Ciattarelli called Mr. Trump a “charlatan” who was “not fit to be president.” Last month, he gladly accepted the president’s endorsement.
His decision to yoke himself to Mr. Trump, a polarizing president, carries built-in risk in a state where registered Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans.
Ken Martin, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, was in New Jersey over the weekend for a get-out-the-vote rally. He called the governor’s race a “huge priority” for the party.
“Stopping Donald Trump really starts in New Jersey this year,” he said in an interview on Tuesday, just before polls closed.
Ms. Sherrill depicted Mr. Ciattarelli as a retread who had already lost two previous races for governor. “Jack is the status quo,” she said. “He’s not change, he’s a rerun. He’s a ghost of elections past.”
Even among Republicans, the president’s popularity in the coming months is unpredictable, as his tariffs contribute to higher costs and Congress considers legislation that could significantly alter Medicaid, which helps to pay for health care for more than 1.7 million New Jersey residents.
Tom Malinowski, a former Democratic congressman who lost re-election in 2022 in a New Jersey swing district, said he expected turnout to surge in November. Only New Jersey and Virginia hold governor’s races the year after a presidential contest, and the results are often seen as bellwethers that can offer early indicators of voter attitudes ahead of the next year’s midterm elections.
“There will be a sense that the eyes of the nation are on New Jersey,” Mr. Malinowski said. “The fact that Republicans are genuinely interested in competing here will be a motivator for Democrats.”
At a polling location in Somerville, N.J., in Mr. Malinowski’s former congressional district, three voters who had cast ballots on Tuesday for different Democratic candidates all said they were planning to attend an anti-Trump protest timed to coincide with a military parade the president is holding in Washington on Saturday, which is also his 79th birthday.
“We’ve got to get the Republicans out,” said Martha Anderson, 71, a retired physician assistant.
But Republicans have distinct advantages in New Jersey that did not exist in recent elections. New Jersey’s last two elected Republican governors, Mr. Christie and Christine Todd Whitman, beat incumbent Democrats to win a first term, an obstacle that does not exist this year. (Mr. Murphy is barred by term limits from running for re-election.)
And Mr. Trump’s stronger-than-expected showing in the state last November has convinced Republicans that their message is resonating with nontraditional voters.
“It’s time for us to now speak directly to the people of New Jersey,” Mr. Ciattarelli told his supporters late Tuesday. “To independents and unaffiliated voters who may have lost faith in both political parties, and wonder whether their vote even matters anymore.”
The president’s outspoken interest in the New Jersey governor’s race brings with it an expectation of financial backing from national donors. “As soon as people hear you’re from New Jersey, you get a lot of questions, interest — and excitement,” Mr. Palatucci said.
New Jersey voters can be fickle, and hard to predict.
In 2008, former President Barack Obama beat the Republican nominee, U.S. Senator John McCain, in the state by 539,000 votes. A year later, Mr. Christie beat the Democratic incumbent, Jon Corzine, by about 99,000 votes.
Mr. Trump lost in New Jersey by only six percentage points last November as Democratic turnout lagged — four years after he was trounced in the state by 16 points by former President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Pat Dennis, the president of American Bridge 21st Century, a Democratic research group and super PAC, said he considered the shift toward Mr. Trump in New Jersey an anomaly, not an entrenched realignment. He said he anticipated that Democrats would match any surge in Republican spending in New Jersey as they sought to reset the narrative.
“I see this as the perfect place to counterpunch,” said Mr. Dennis, who grew up in New Jersey and worked for Mr. Corzine’s campaign.
But on Tuesday, plenty of voters said they agreed that one-party control in Trenton, the capital, had contributed to the state’s high cost of living.
Salvatore Toto, 56, of Morris Township, said he was casting a vote for Mr. Ciattarelli, and against “Democratic blunders.”
“It’s time for a change,” Mr. Toto said.
Taylor Robinson and Tammy LaGorce contributed reporting.
